I keep coming across research, written by authors who are not non-binary, that includes the confident statement that a majority of non-binary people are not transgender, or that a majority of non-binary people are cisgender.

I will start by saying that identity is complex and personal and every individual can identify how they please. Naturally. Personally, I am trans and non-binary. I both identify as trans, and I also consider ‘trans’ as an umbrella term that has space underneath it to capture non-binary identities in general [whilst recognising that some non-binary people, just like some binary-oriented people of trans experience/history, don’t like to be called or recognise themselves as trans].

I personally feel stressed out and othered by language that defaults to ‘trans and non-binary people’ as though they are two distinct categories (I’m personally happier with a default assumption that the term trans will always include non-binary people, and where folks want to emphatically include non-binary people who reject trans as an umbrella I’m be ok with the cumbersome ‘trans and/or non-binary’. Of course humans are messy and no language will be perfect.

A conclusive and confident statement about a majority of non-binary people being cisgender always pushes me to ask the question – where is the data coming from?

In my personal experience, I’ve known many people who start out identifying as non-binary and ‘not trans’, who over time, embrace the umbrella label of trans [I’m not sure I’ve ever met anyone who has gone the other route]. I’ve known many non-binary people who initially feel that they cannot or must not take the label trans, that using such a label would be ‘appropriation’, if they have not medically transitioned enough, if they have not socially transitioned enough, if they have not suffered enough. With connections to trans communities I’ve known many such people come to adopt the label of trans. Whether an individual non-binary person finds meaning under the umbrella label trans is not a static binary and can change over time.

There is also a curious double standard in some surveys wherein non-binary people can be labelled as cis if they do not actively identify with the word trans, whereas trans is considered a default marker for binary-oriented trans people even if they do not personally identify with the term.

Lets look at the original report that is the root of the claim that a majority of non-binary people are cisgender and see whether there are any potential problems with that report.

It is a 2021 report titled “Nonbinary LGBTQ Adults in the United States“

It tells us confidently that “A greater percentage of nonbinary LGBTQ adults are cisgender rather than transgender”. I’ve seen this claim, that a majority of non-binary people are cisgender replicated in many publications.

There are several points to give us pause about the reliability of this claim.

Firstly the data comes from surveys conducted in the US in 2016-2018, that were designed in 2014. Identity language and knowledge amongst non-binary communities has been on a huge journey over the past decade. There are way more resources, groups and connections for non-binary people in 2025 than in 2016. Presuming that identity labels for non-binary people in the US in 2016 align with non-binary identity labels (worldwide!) in 2025 is a big assumption.

Secondly, the surveys from which this claim are drawn were not designed to find out whether non-binary people identify as trans, and were not designed, as far as I’m aware, in collaboration with non-binary authors. The summary report is from the Williams Institute, a research institute that has a history of being critiqued for some failings in the way it considers trans people’s data.

Take a look at this figure from the 2021 summary report and tell me if it might demonstrate some structural areas of ignorance or bias. As a non-binary reader this figure makes me dizzy. At best it begs some serious questions.

I tried to find out what was the underpinning data, what exact questions were people being asked in 2016 that led to the above diagram and it is rather complex and confusing.

The original sample comprised 1,369 LGB(T) people in 2016-2017 (people were asked if they were ‘lesbian, gay, bisexual, queer, or samegender loving’ and respondents needed to answer yes to be included).

This sample was filtered into two different surveys based responses to these two questions, designed in 2014:

1. On your original birth certificate was your sex assigned as male or female
2. Do you currently describe yourself as i) man, ii) woman or iii) transgender.

[In some versions of the survey a fourth option for part 2 was included “(iv) do not identify as female, male, or transgender”.]

Respondents who did not pick the option ‘transgender’ above were filtered into an LGB survey called the Generations study. It was presumed to be a study of cisgender people (though respondents were never asked if they identify as cisgender). (27 respondents who clicked man or woman rather than transgender in a way that did not match with their assigned sex were excluded from the Generations survey).

It is important to note that people only gain access to the Generations study if they click that their identity is ‘man’ or ‘woman’ in the initial filter question (making it harder to access, for say, non-binary people…).

The presumed cisgender participants of the Generations study are then asked about their gender identity:

“If you had to choose only one of the following terms, which best describes your current gender identity?” a) woman (744 answered this) b) man (665 answered this) c) non-binary/genderqueer (94 answered this). 15 did not respond.

Note none of these participants have been asked if they identify as cisgender, they are simply LGBT identifying participants who did not click on ‘transgender’ in the initial screening. These 94 people in the US are deemed to be ‘cisgender non-binary people’. This group of ‘non-binary/gender queer’ individuals are further sub-divided into those who are deemed ‘cisgender LB women’ and those who are deemed ‘cisgender GB men’ based on whether they had ticked man or woman in the very first question. All non-binary people must be a man or a woman.

People who clicked ‘transgender’ at the first question are steered to a separate survey called ‘transpop‘. Everyone in the second survey is classified as transgender, as they needed to specifically click the option ‘transgender’ for question one.

People in the transpop survey were asked about their ‘gender identity’.

They were asked two questions:

1. Which of the following terms best describes your gender identity? a) man, b) woman or c) genderqueer/non-binary.
2. Do you currently consider yourself a) man b) woman c) transgender.

If it seems that the questions options are confusing and non-logical, it is because they are confusing and non-logical.

Comparing the two surveys

1518 individuals completed phase one of the Generations survey, of whom 94 identified as non-binary. Only 274 people completed the transpop survey across all waves of that survey, of whom 76 identified as non-binary. The total number of those deemed cisgender non-binary men and cisgender non-binary women in the Generations survey (=96) was greater than the number of non-binary people in the transpop survey (=74). This leads to the confident conclusion that ‘a majority of non-binary people are cisgender. Despite not one non-binary person having been asked ‘are you cisgender’? Despite no questions that specifically recognise a non-binary person’s identity before asking whether the word transgender or trans as an identity term or an umbrella term is meaningful to them.

I do not find the above reliable or (globally) meaningful for providing insight into non-binary populations in 2025.

Overall

This survey from 2016-2017, designed in 2014, makes a range of questionable choices. I don’t think anyone would argue that these choices stand up in 2025 as a useful way of collecting information about trans and non-binary populations.

Most importantly, it never specifically asks non-binary people ‘do you identify as transgender yes or no’. ‘do you identify as cisgender yes or no’, or the question ‘do you feel comfortable defining your non-binary identity under a broader umbrella as trans’.

There are plenty of non-binary people who may not specifically identify with the word trans as a key self-descriptor, who nevertheless are happy under a broad ‘trans umbrella’.

It is a double standard to define all binary trans people as ‘trans’ based on e.g. identification as a man while having assigned gender female even if that individual does not personally ‘identify as’ trans, but limiting non-binary transness to only those who ‘identify as’ trans.

Overall I think identity and labels are messy, binaries are often false.

I do not think any of the above is a robust basis on which to make confident claims that ‘a majority of non-binary people are cisgender’.

Could we, maybe, actually ask non-binary people what we actually think?

Could we stop relying on surveys such as this deeply flawed 2021 Williams Institute survey for understanding non-binary lives?